Bitcoin’s legendary four-year cycle may not be unfolding exactly as it did in the past, but crypto insiders say it’s far from over.
Saad Ahmed, Gemini’s head of the Asia-Pacific region, that while the cycle might evolve, “it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle.” He explained this cycle stems from human emotions people get excited, markets overextend, then crashes lead to corrections before settling at a balance.
Institutional Players Could Soften the Ride
Ahmed noted that increasing institutional involvement in crypto might reduce the volatility traditionally seen in Bitcoin’s cycles. “You’ll see some of the volatility flag off,” he said. “But you’ll still see some sort of a cycle, because, ultimately, it’s driven by human emotion.” This blending of human behavior and bigger players could change how pronounced future cycles become.
The Debate Over Bitcoin’s Cycle Heats Up
The question on everyone’s mind: Is the four-year cycle still relevant to Bitcoin’s price movements?
On August 21, Glassnode, a respected crypto analytics company, said Bitcoin’s recent price action might still be following its historic halving cycle. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital added that the peak of this cycle might occur this month if the pattern holds. He estimated that if this cycle resembles 2020’s, the market would likely hit its peak around October approximately 550 days after the April 2024 halving.
October: Bitcoin’s Historically Strongest Quarter
Historically, Bitcoin’s Q4 is its best-performing quarter. Since 2013, it has averaged an impressive 79.39% return, according to CoinGlass. This aligns with Bitcoin’s recent price surge: it climbed 11.5% in the last seven days, reaching $123,850 on Friday just shy of its all-time high of $124,100 set in mid-August.
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Voices of Optimism and Skepticism
Not everyone fully agrees that Bitcoin will stick to its old cycle.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said in July he doesn’t expect Bitcoin’s price to follow past cycles exactly. Still, he remains bullish on the overall outlook, predicting 2026 could be an “up year” and expects positive momentum for the next few years.
What This Means for Bitcoin’s Future
So, is Bitcoin’s tried-and-tested four-year lifecycle dead? The consensus among crypto experts is no it’s likely evolving rather than disappearing. While human emotions will continue to drive cycles of hype and correction, growing institutional involvement could moderate extreme price swings.
With Bitcoin’s strong seasonal trends and recent price gains, the coming months promise to be critical and exciting for crypto enthusiasts watching closely.
